Land use/land cover change impact on streamflow using Arc-SWAT model, in case of Fetam watershed, Abbay Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract Changes in Land Use Cover (LULC) are currently one of the greatest pressing issues facing watershed, its hydrological properties soil, and water management catchment areas. One most important elements impacting streamflow watersheds is LULC change. The main objective this study was to evaluate effect future predication change on Fetam watershed by using Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov IDRISI software. To analyze impact land use/cover streamflow, Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibration validation model used. map developed software, coverage LULCs including parameters cropland, vegetation, grassland, Built-up area/Urban body. findings showed that major challenges use/cove changes were rapid population increase, farming, industrial activity. During period (2000–2020), portions body, grassland changed into cropland constructed building. Cropland construction areas increased 15% 46.95%, respectively, whereas bodies, decreased 62.7%, 70.02%, 38.1%, respectively. According forecasted results for 2030–2040, built-up increased, while bodies . SWAT model's performance evaluated sensitive parameters. For years 2000–2004, 2005–2012, models calibrated validated, good agreement between observed simulated with NSE R 2 values 0.88 0.72 0.9 0.85, indicated seasonal from 2000 2010 2010–2020 during dry rainy seasons. In general, impacts significant considerations planning implementing resource projects. order address risks, effective land-use climate-resilient strategies will be improved.